Kailuan shares (600997): Coke, chemical product prices lead to lower profits

Kailuan shares (600997): Coke, chemical product prices lead to lower profits

Event: On October 29, 2019, the company released three quarterly reports, reporting that the two companies achieved operating income of 157.

$ 2.8 billion increased by 1.

8%, the degree of net profit attributable to mother 10.

11 ppm, a ten-year increase2.

04%.

Comment on the quarter-on-quarter average decline in the first three quarters of results: According to the announcement, the company achieved net profit for the first three quarters.

11 ppm, a ten-year increase2.

04%, net profit attributable to mothers was achieved in the third quarter.

89 ‰, a decrease of 29 per year.

36%, down 18 from the previous month.

44%.

The volume and price of cleaned coal rose: the company produced 223 cleaned coal in the first three quarters of 2019.

49 for the first time, with an annual increase of 2.

41% sold 128 clean coal.

34 is the earliest, at least under 9.

03%.

The carbonization of the clean coal is 1219.

06 yuan / ton, an annual increase of 5.

20%.

The output of cleaned coal in the third quarter was 75.

At the beginning of 14, the annual growth rate was 4.

13%, an increase of 4 from the previous month.

89%; sales are 40.

82 at least, down 3 per year.

13%, an increase of 9 from the previous month.

38%.

The cleaned coal single quarter quarter was 1,223 yuan / ton, an increase of 4 per year.

57%, down from the previous month.

43%.

Coke price fluctuations: In the first three quarters of 2019, the company produced coke 545.

94 for the first time, growing by 5 per year.

48%, sales of coke 548.

75 for the first time, growing by 4 per year.

24%, coke formaldehyde is 1907.

28 yuan / ton, an annual increase of 3.

46%.

The single-season coke output in the third quarter was 171.

01 for the first time, with an annual increase of 0.21%, down 6 from the previous month.

31%; sales were 170.

1 Initially, downgrade 6 every year.

02%, down 7 from the previous month.

64%.

The ton of pyroformaldehyde was 1,862 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2 from the previous month.

28%, a decline of 5 per year.

87%.

Chemical prices continue to fluctuate: the company sold methanol in the first three quarters of 201912.

81 for the first time, growing by 18 per year.

83%; quality is 1859.

89 yuan / ton, down 21 previously.

31%.

Pure benzene sales were 5.

38 for the first time, growing by 5 per year.

7% with a purity of 3932.

81 yuan / ton, down 26 previously.

51%; sales of adipic acid 11.

42 Initially, it grew by 5 per year.

84% with a purity of 7176.

54 yuan / ton, down 20 previously.

86%.

Sale of polyoxymethylene 2.

82 for the first time, growing 41 each year.

71% with a purity of 9445.

89 yuan / ton, down 24.

28%.

In terms of cost, coking coal purchase cost was 1285.

34 yuan / ton, an annual increase of 3.

86%.

In the single quarter, methanol sales were 3.

6 initial, down 28.

29%, a decrease of 3 per year.

74% of methanol income per ton was 1726.

24 yuan / ton, previously downgraded by 28.

56%, down 9 from the previous month.

46%.

Pure benzene sales were 2.

28 Initially, the annual increase is 55.

1%, an increase of 12 from the previous month.87%, purity 4335.

87 yuan / ton, an increase of 21 from the previous month.

82%, down 21 a year.

03%.

Adipic acid single-quarter sales were 3.

51 for the first time, downgrading 12 every year.

03%, down 13.

55%; purity is 7296.

9 yuan / ton, down 15 before.

01%, up 2 from the previous month.

twenty two%.

POM sales were 1.

09 for the first time, with an annual increase of 122.

45%, an increase of 81.

67%, 9016 purity.

64 yuan / ton, down 28 before.

26%, down 4 from the previous month.

27%.

Coking capacity was shut down for 60 years / year, with an annualized impact of approximately 45.55 million yuan: According to the announcement, according to the Chengde City Government, two coke ovens in the first phase of the coking project of the company’s subsidiary Chengde Zhongli Company were required to be closed before October 31, 2019The suspension will involve coking capacity for 60 years / company. The combined caliber capacity will be reduced from 720 tons / year to 660 tons / year, a decrease of 8.

3%, equity capacity decreased by 30.

6 cathode, down 6.

68%.

According to the announcement, the operating income of Chengde Zhongli Phase I from January to September 2019 achieved 9.

120,000 yuan, net profit 6698.

570,000 yuan, annualized net profit is expected to be 8931.

430,000 yuan, considering the company’s 51% equity, the mother caliber is 4555.

30,000 yuan.

As the coke oven and related systems are shut down, some fixed assets will not be reusable or there will be a risk of impairment. However, the net value of the fixed assets of the first phase of coke ovens and related supporting systems of Chengde Zhongye Company’s coking project will be approximately 9126.

390,000 yuan, the overall impact is expected to be limited.

Investment suggestion: The prosperity of the coking industry will improve, and the company’s future performance will be elastically reorganized.

Give overweight-A investment rating, 6-month target price of 6.

32 yuan, equivalent to 9 times the price-earnings ratio.

We expect the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 to be 12 respectively.

54/13.

07/13.

180,000 yuan, EPS is 0.

79, 0.

82, 0.

83 yuan / share.

Risk reminder: coal prices and coke prices fall more than expected, coking decapacity falls short of expectations, chemical product prices 无锡夜网 fall, and large asset impairments are accrued