Gujia Household (603816) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review： Endogenous Revenue Speeds Up, Operation Quality Continues to Optimize
Gujia Household (603816) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Endogenous Revenue Speeds Up, Operation Quality Continues to Optimize
The company’s announcement for the third quarter of 2019 is in line with our expectations: the company achieved revenue of 77 in the first three quarters.800 million, an annual increase of 21.6%; Realize net profit attributable to mother 9.17 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.8%; 19Q3 revenue of 27 in a single quarter.65 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.9%, net profit attributable to mother 3.580,000 yuan, an increase of 18 in ten years.3%.Domestic export double drive, 19Q3 endogenous increase significantly.Excluding consolidation factors to see endogenous: We estimate that after excluding the effects of acquisition consolidation, endogenous income in 19Q1-3 increased slightly, of which the endogenous growth in the third and third quarters was about 5-10% (vs. 19H1 only 0.57%), mainly due to: 1) the successful launch of 816 and other marketing activities, domestic sales growth has picked up (about 15% in the third and third quarters); 2) the decline in export sales has narrowed, and the company has promoted the strategy of major customers through the overseas production capacity layout, andWith the improvement of supply chain efficiency, the export share has risen against the trend, excluding consolidation factors, and the net profit of the mother has increased by about 8%. The difference in the timing of dividend investment income recognition has led to quarterly changes in the growth rate of non-net profit.Reduction of non-base deduction: Q1-3 Company deducted non-attribution net profit 6.65 ppm, a ten-year increase4.3%.The decrease in non-deduction growth rate was mainly due to the high base in 18Q3: 18Q3 received a 45.52 million yuan dividend from Evergrande Real Estate (Ruican Investment Enterprise of Suzhou Industrial Park, dividends included in investment income), resulting in a high base in 18Q3 (after eliminationShould be 2.5.8 billion), excluding this effect, the growth rate of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 19Q1-3 should be 23.9%.The dividend income of Evergrande Real Estate in 2019 is expected to be included in 19Q4, so we expect the company’s gradual deduction of non-net profit growth will pick up. The quality of operations improved, and cash flow continued to improve.The company achieved net operating cash flow of 14.3 trillion, an increase of 202% in one year, accounts receivable decreased by 0 compared with the beginning of the year.9.6 billion, inventory decreased by 2.10,000 yuan, advance receipts increased by 60.62 million yuan, cash flow improved significantly. Revenue side: the continuous development 南京桑拿网 of multi-category, multi-series, and multi-brand expansion development, and each business segment achieved steady growth.The marketing activities of the company were successful in 19Q3. We expect the growth rate of endogenous domestic sales to be about 15%. At the end of the 19Q3 period, the company’s advance receipts will increase 66%, indicating that the trend of terminal orders is improving. We expect 19Q4 revenue to continue to maintain a rapid growth rate. 1) Multi-category development: As the company’s traditional main business, the sofa business has a strong customer base and brand attributes, maintaining steady growth.According to the company’s multi-brand development strategy, meet the needs of different consumer groups.2) Continuously promote channel construction: In 2019, the company has optimized the store opening process, combined with a unified construction team, integrated resources, changed the store opening cycle, and expanded the number and quality of channel stores. 3) Optimization of management structure: The company’s management team keeps improving and meets the needs of market development, and its talent reserve and organizational execution are leading.In the second half of 2018, the company gradually changed from the original business unit system to a regional marketing center model, with clear team building ideas and a good team foundation for the company’s long-term strategic development. Supply chain management optimization: The company continuously optimizes the logistics transportation system and storage management system, digitizes the delivery plan, logistics freight calculation, and transportation routines, and gradually delivers the cycle.In terms of warehousing, an offline container loading model was established, and demand management, requisition models, and procurement and return processes were streamlined and optimized to ensure that the company reduced warehousing and logistics costs and increased inventory turnover in the development of multiple categories. Inventory turnover costs4.77 times, 0 in a year.08 times. Profit side: affected by consolidation factors and the cost of issuing convertible bonds, profitability has shifted slightly.1) Gross profit margin: 19Q1-3 The gross profit margin extended slightly and decreased by 0.6 points.2) The financial expense ratio is increased by 0 in advance.5pct is mainly due to the increase in interest expenses caused by the issuance of convertible bonds and the impact of consolidation factors, which results in an increase in the net increase in index expenditure by 81.53 million yuan;6pct, although export costs, employee compensation, etc. have increased, the company’s precise marketing, streamlined advertising costs, and optimized supply chain management, the cost rate is still falling. Actively develop categories, the leading level of the software home furnishing industry is remarkable, a series of supply chains continue to be optimized, and the company has the foundation to steadily contribute to the large home furnishing market.The company’s main product sofas benefit from the improvement of industry concentration; gradually promote the gradual expansion of category expansion to create a superior product matrix; the channel expansion is continuously strengthened; the company will continue to promote O2O integration to realize the layout of new retail channels.The initial incentive was granted for the first time, and the convertible bonds successfully raised funds to promote the sustainable development of the company’s business.The expansion of production capacity has been gradual and gradual, and the energy storage large home strategy module.Based on the acceleration of the company’s endogenous growth and the increase in non-recurring earnings in 2019, we raised the company’s EPS to 1 in 2019-2021.95 yuan, 2.28 yuan, 2.66 yuan profit forecast (was 1.90 yuan, 2.18 yuan, 2.51 yuan), net profit attributable to mother is 11.75/13.70/16.02 trillion, the growth rate was 18.8% / 16.6% / 16.9% currently total (35.(97 yuan) corresponding to PE of 2019-2021 is 18, 16, 14 times, benefiting from the increase in the concentration of the leading household industry, the company’s incentive mechanism is in place, and the endogenous growth logic is improving.We are optimistic about the company’s medium- and long-term development prospects, and look forward to the company’s various categories to develop a beautiful layout in the home sector to maintain an increase in holdings.