In-depth * Company * SPDB (600000): Adjust the structure to promote interest rate repair and focus on the improvement trend of 天津夜网 asset quality
SPDB’s 18-year structural adjustment has shown initial results. At the same time, its exposure to public asset quality has stabilized, and its overall operating risk has decreased significantly.
The company’s asset side is proactively inclined towards retail. In the future, the focus will shift to the performance of the deposit side and retail asset risk.
Considering that the current company’s estimated level lower than the industry average has fully reflected the company’s asset quality expectations, it maintains SPDB’s Overweight rating.
Key points of official ratings Revenue growth has improved at a low level, and regulatory factors have dragged down program fees. SPDB’s 18-year net profit has increased in value3.
05%, basically in line with expectations.
Revenue previously increased by one.
73%, a slight increase of 0 compared with the first three quarters.
The steady recovery of revenue was mainly due to the continuous improvement of net interest income, which increased in value every year4.
61% (compared to the first three quarters of 2.
Affected by the gradual and progressive impact of regulations, the program fee growth has been sluggish and has dropped by 14 every year.
4%, accounting for 4% of revenue.
29 out of 22.
7%, of which custody business dropped 39%, wealth management income dropped 55.
The asset structure adjustment has increased significantly, but the improvement of the liability side remains to be observed. The company’s 18-year asset structure adjustment has been positive, and the total asset size has only increased in value.
5%, the loan growth rate increased by 11% per year, and promoted the proportion of loans increased by 4.
38 up to 56.
In terms of credit structure, 68% of credit will be gradually increased to retail sales, of which credit card loans and other loans mainly based on consumer credit increased correspondingly.
61% and 67.
6%, which promoted loan yields and interest-earning asset yields to increase by 3bp and 6bp compared to the first half.
However, from the perspective of the aldehyde end, the weak growth of deposits persists, and the deposits in the fourth quarter fell by 1 quarter-on-quarter.
45%, the proportion of demand deposits decreases by 5 every year.
26 up to 45.
3%, resulting in the original deposit cost of SPDB increased 9BP compared with the end of the first half.
On the whole, the adjustment of the beneficiary asset-side structure and the decline in the cost of interbank debts have significantly increased the company’s net interest margin to 1.
94%, compared with the first half of the year.
The level of 77% increased significantly.
Asset quality has stabilized and improved, and bad expectations have expanded. In terms of strict asset quality, SPDB’s non-performing loan ratio in the fourth quarter dropped by 5BP to 1 from the previous quarter.
92%, which has been down for 4 consecutive quarters since 2018, but the absolute value is still relatively high among listed banks.
As of the end of 2018, SPDB’s loan / non-performing ratio overdue for more than 90 days84.
6%, bad identification has been severe.
At the end of the fourth quarter, SPDB’s provision coverage ratio increased by 2 from the previous quarter.
Twenty-eight are as high as 155%, which is only slightly higher than the regulatory 150% requirement. The level of future provisions needs to be further improved to enhance risk prevention capabilities.
It is estimated that considering the positive impact of the company’s structural adjustment on the interest rate differential and the ease of pressure on asset quality, we slightly increased the company’s EPS in 19/20 to 2.
0/2.1 yuan / share (previous forecast 1.)
98), corresponding to a growth rate of 5.
0% / 4.
At present, the overall corresponding PE for 2019/20 is 5.
51x / 5.
26x, PB is 0.
66x / 0.
60x, the main risks facing the rating: asset quality exceeds expectations, and financial supervision exceeds expectations.